Abdulbari Atwan: Al-Qa'ida stronger despite nine years of 'war on terror'

4 October 2010
Nine years of 'war on terror', the twin conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, the loss of more than 5,000 soldiers and a total cost of at least $1,200 billion at the least were meant to have made the world a safer place and eliminate al-Qa'ida's threat to global security. Facts on the ground suggest the exact opposite.

The United States of America, which spearheaded these military interventions, yesterday announced a state of maximum security alert and warned its nationals of the possibility of terrorist attacks occurring in Europe, saying that al-Qai'da might target transport, especially trains, planes and underground subways.

Britain, France and Germany, partners of the United States in its wars in the Middle East, raised their respective anti-terrorism alerts from 'general' to 'high' or 'severe' after security officials in these countries leaked reports to the media revealing the existence of plots for big attacks, found in the possession of 'terrorist cells' arrested in Germany.

Some months ago Western newspapers published 'fatwas' (Muslim religious edicts) repeated by those who call themselves 'terrorist experts' asserting that al-Qai'da was weaker than it has ever been with just a handful of fighters left in Afghanistan, and that it no longer poses a threat to the West.

The question that poses itself in the midst of confusion and uncertainty is: Whom are we to believe? The "experts" who speak of the weakness of al-Qa'ida or western governments who declare a state of emergency and warn their citizens against travelling by plane, bus and train?

What is certain is that al-Qa'ida is increasing in strength and dynamism. This is a signal failure for the war against terrorism; the western world has stumbled straight into al-Qa'ida's trap rather than the opposite.

Prior to the war on terrorism (today is its ninth anniversary), there was a single address for al-Qa'ida organization: The Srinagar mountains overlooking Jalalabad, the Tora Bora region, the main square, the third cave to the right. Now there is al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula led by Nasir al-Wahayshi in Yemen; al-Qa'ida in the Islamic Maghrib led by Abu Mus'ab Abd-al-Wadud; al-Qa'ida in the Horn of Africa represented in the Somali Mujahidin Youth; al-Qa'ida in the Land of the Two Rivers led by Abu-Amr al-Iraqi; the mother al-Qa'ida in Afghanistan led by the Old Guard, in addition to small branches in Lebanon and others in Gaza, with more to follow. The organization is in a state of multiplication that the most optimistic among its leaders and sympathizers had not imagined possible.

Two major developments took place within al-Qa'ida organization which have made it more dangerous:

First: Finding new sources of finance through kidnapping Western hostages in the Sahara countries, plus groups close to al-Qa'ida venturing to seize ships in the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. Second: success is in reaching some members of the Islamic communities that immigrated to Europe and recruiting cells from among the extremist youth.

The proximity to Europe of al-Qa'ida in the Islamic Maghrib and the increase in illegal immigration made it possible for al-Qa'ida elements to infiltrate more easily. We have to remember that only four individuals carried out the underground subway explosions in London, and nearly double that number carried out the bombings of the Madrid trains.

Western governments have often affirmed that they will never negotiate with that terroris t organization under any circumstances. But, after years that can be counted on the fingers of one hand, they have dropped these affirmations and have not only started to negotiate but to pay "jiziah" [Islamic tax] to the organization against their will.

The Spanish government which was the first to break this rule when it pulled out all its forces from Iraq as a reply to the demands of al-Qa'ida and its threats to carry out bombings similar to those of the Madrid railway station of 2004; subsequently it went beyond that and negotiated with a branch of the organization in the Sahara, and paid an estimated eight million euros to secure the release of two Spanish hostages who had been kidnapped by a cell of the organization.

The Government of Nicolas Sarkozy, the president of France who resorted to force to secure the liberation of a French hostage kidnapped by the organization, an operation ending "a la Rambo" with the execution of the hostage, is looking for a negotiating channel, and waving its readiness to pay 'a ransom' in return for the release of its five nationals kidnapped by the organization in northern Niger who are presently held in one of the protected caves in the chain of tortuous mountains in the north of the state of Mali.

The Taliban, now al-Qa'ida's closest ally, was supposed to have disappeared from the earth after the collapse of its rule in Kabul and the scattering of its elements under the weight of the bombings by giant American B-52 planes, but is currently in control of two-thirds of Afghanistan. President Hamid Karzai is begging it to negotiate with him and has formed a Higher Peace Council for the purpose, but there is no response, for the reply of the movement is clear: negotiations should be to ensure the withdrawal of the American forces and those who came with them without any conditions, and return it to the sovreignty of its rightful owners. Karzai publicly weeping in front of the cameras does not melt the heart so the opposition, who are of his own tribe - the Pashtun.

Who is responsible for this mess and how can it be repaired and its losses curtailed as a first step towards halting it altogether and emerging from this hemorrhaging bloody crisis?

America is the main culprit, due to its arrogant and exagerrated reaction to the events of September 11. Guilty too those in the administration who continue to support Israel's agenda regardless of the principles of justice and fairness and who incite the US army - the greatest military force in the world - to spill the blood of the Arabs and the Muslims in Iraq and Afghanistan. Yes, one can see and understand the reasons the US took the course it has done but consider the cost: the destruction of the America's international reputation, increasing hatred of the United States, and bankruptcy of Western capitalism because of the exorbitant costs entailed. In addition, there is the martyrdom of a million Arab and Muslim human beings in Iraq and Afghanistan and the destruction of the two countries.

Joseph Joseph Stiglitz, the American scientist who won the Nobel prize for economy in 2000, said that the cost of the two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan over the short term will reach four trillion dollars (4,000 billion dollars) and that 600,000 Iraqis and Afghans, and half a million Americans will require medical care and compensation in the near future as a result of their injuries or suffering. He made these statements at a press conference held last month in Washington.

US President Obama was not able to convince Israel to freeze the illegitimate settlements over the past two months for the sake of cont inuation of the negotiations with the Palestinians which are sponsored by his government, even though he extended a bunch of temptations the Israelis did not dream of including deals for ultra-advanced weapons, pressures on the Palestinians to accept Israeli forces on their borders with Jordan, and pressure on the Arabs to normalize relations in advance without the withdrawal specified in the second part of their initiative. He did not hesitate to send 100,000 soldiers to Afghanistan to fight the Taliban in the hope of breaking their backbone.

The shameful and humiliating weakness of the US Administration in its relations with Israel, and the continuation of its support for corrupt and despotic Arab regimes in the name of safeguarding stability, whilst viewing the Muslim world through the peep-holes of the Israeli tent alone, are all factors, individually or collectively, that made the leader of al-Qa'ida talk in his last tape as a Caliph for the Muslims. He criticized insufficiency in dealing with the flood catastrophe in Pakistan and talked from his cave at length about climate change, while leaving it to his youthful aides to spread terror in the hearts of the Western governments and their peoples.