Crisis group report: Drums of War, Israel and the "Axis of Resistance"

The following is a report by Crisis group. The report (read HERE) looks at the geopolitical interplay between Israel,Syria, Iran, the Lebanese state, Hezbollah and other regional actors.

One important highlight is that the report points out that any future war between Israel and Hezbollah is likely to be more intense, with greater numbers of civilian casualties and greater possibility of regionalisation.

"Four years after the last war, the situation in the Levant is
paradoxical. It is exceptionally quiet and uniquely dangerous,
both for the same reason. The build-up in military
forces and threats of an all-out war that would spare neither
civilians nor civilian infrastructure, together with the
worrisome prospect of its regionalisation, are effectively
deterring all sides. Today, none of the parties can soberly
contemplate the prospect of a conflict that would be uncontrolled,
unprecedented and unscripted."

Dahiya doctrine

In the aftermath of the 2006 war the Israeli Government established the Winograd commission. The commsion concluded that Israel failed to achieve a military victory, that in their words " the 2nd Lebanon war [was] … a serious missed opportunity. Israel initiated a long war, which ended without its clear military victory. A semi-military organisation of a few thousand men resisted, for a few weeks, the strongest army in the Middle East, which enjoyed full air superiority and size and technology advantages. The barrage of rockets aimed at Israel’s civilian population lasted throughout the war, and the IDF did not provide an effective response to it"

Furthermore despite that deaths of around 1200 civilians (many of whom were children), and billions of dollars worth of damage to Lebanon's infrastructure, the commission added Israeli military had not used sufficient force, and that Israel deterrence capability required in future wars a greater disproportionate use of force:

"Israel cannot survive in this region, and cannot live in it in peace or at least non-war, unless people in Israel itself and in its surroundings believe that Israel has the political and military leadership, military capabilities, and social robustness that will allow her to deter those of its neighbors who wish to harm her, and to prevent them – if necessary through the use of military force – from achieving their goal"

These conclusion lead to the development of the 'Dahiya doctrine' (Dahiya refers to the southern Beirut neighborhood that was devastated by Israeli air strikes in 2006). This new doctrine is best explanied by quoting Major General Eizencourt, head of Israel’s Northern Command.

"What happened to the Dahiya neighbourhood... will happen to each village from which Israel is fired on. We will apply disproportionate force and inflict huge damage and destruction …. The next war must be decided quickly, aggressively, and without seeking international
approval …. Hizbollah understands very well that firing from villages will lead to their destruction."

The report is well worth read as it provides the reader with lot of information regarding the political situation and the possibility of war breaking out in the near future.